I just want to throw up.....

"The country has been sold an illusion of itself"

Bruce Springsteen circa 1985


The quote I used to use was "Someday we'll look back and it will all seem funny, " from Springteen's Rosalita. I felt that quote got me through a lot of rough spots that one I will look back at laugh. Like the time in South Korea where I had the two prostitutes and one was a guy..... No not really, but you get my drift.

Anyhoo, I look around at the country's situation and I shake my head as no one with any sense of responsibility is in charge. Stagflation is running rampant, oil is at $116, gas is at $3.75 a gallon (oh but silly me, oil was down $3 today, that problem is now served), unemployment is very under reported, the housing crisis is getting worse by the day. Yet, all you here is how good things are. Hell, since the Bear Stearns debacle the market has gone on a tear. This was the shortest recession/bump in the road in history. How long did it last, three months? Oh....the pain. Just think if the current bunch of morons were running things during the Depression, would it have ever happened, or would it have been just a bad couple of weeks?

Lately, I have been on a rant about CNBC as I really can't take that station's "all things are good, all the time" mentality. Everything is good in the long run. It makes me throw up in my mouth.

The current mantra on the station is the Fed is done, the dollar has bottomed, fuck commodities (especially gold) the crisis is over, and get ready to party like it's 1999. IMO, the situation is so far from the truth, the station should be held for libel.

CNBC, likes to champion brash, bold new ideas that for the most part are just wishful thinking. Remember about two months ago during the dollar's last dead cat bounce? CNBC's reasoning then was the dollar was rallying as the Fed cuts were going to spur the economy in a few months. I had a few laughs over that one as it would have been the first time in recorded history that a currency ever got stronger because the Central Bank was cutting interest rates. Hey, whatever sounds good right?

Now the mantra is the Fed might be done cutting so the dollar has bottomed and commodities, especially the dirty, evil gold, have topped out. Sell now. From a fundamental basis that is so far off base it's comical. The following is from Lance Lewis over at Minyanville.com:

"Will the Fed pause tomorrow? I suspect it will. But will that "act" magically bottom the dollar and cause inflation to go to zero overnight? That's lunacy.

People need to remember that by pausing, the Fed is merely ending the process of feeding inflation (assuming it isn't forced by weak economy to ease again). This is not "getting tough on inflation" That would be like saying the police are getting tough on crime by no longer giving out free handguns to crooks. Once an inflationary trend begins and becomes embedded like this one is, it doesn't just stop overnight. Only monetary tightening will stop it.

However, with the economy in recession, and the financial system still crippled, the Fed can't tighten. And tightening is the only thing that will bring down inflation. "Talking tough" about inflation is meaningless.....

And if the dollar continued its bounce the Fed pausing won't be the reason. In fact, when the last easing cycle ended on June 25, 2003, the dollar index was down 0.4 percent three months later. Six months later, it was down 5.9%.

Make no bones about it, the economy is in shitty shape. How shitty you ask? So shitty, that there is talk about a second round of economic stimulus is already being talked about in Congress. (Prolly just vote getting, but the fact that they are discussing it is interesting.)

Is housing coming back? Not for a long time. The dollar "bottoming" has spurred interest rates to the point where anyone who needs to refi, now can't. You now need stellar credit, at 20% down, and a stamp on your ass from the queen herself to get a new mortgage. The conditions are even tighter for a refi.

Gasoline and oil with the exception of some declines here and there, are not coming down meaningfully any time soon, IMO. Yes, demand in the US, might be shrinking, but think outside the country, China is exploding for oil consumption, along with India. And when there is no meaningful energy program, prices in this country, will go higher when the demand does come back.

Surely, you have noticed the rampant inflation that is all around. Food, energy, insurance, basic materials, etc. Sorry, but that doesn't get cured just because the Fed stopped cutting; temporarily.

Things are a mess unless you live in the CNBC world where things are good all the time as the next bull market is hear or around the corner.

For me, all roads lead to gold, regardless of what CNBS says.

The CNBC/Fast Money Morons just don't get it....

The CNBC Morons just don't get it.

Just because the Fed may, and I stress may, stop cutting rates, doesn't mean the dollar will go higher. That's like saying all oil companies are going to do well simply because the price of oil is higher. It doesn't work that way. When the Fed stopped their last cycle of cuts, what happened? The dollar rallied then began its multi-year decline. I see no reason why this should be any different. Things are horrible out there, regardless of what CNBC wants you to believe.

In order for the dollar to go higher, you need economic strength, and there is none, and IMO there is none on the horizon; $119 oil will sap any strength from the economy. But won't oil come down, if the dollar goes higher, you ask? Not always. Look what happened over the last week or so when the dollar had a counter trend rally, it constantly made news highs except for one day when it was down a couple of bucks.Of course, in the eyes of the Fast Money guys, gold is toast. Again, this is not accurate. Assuming the dollar goes higher because the ECB cuts (and that's a big assumption) you will see, at some point, gold and the dollar going higher together, in peace and harmony.Guy "gold will go to $700 before $800, Adami calls for the death of gold and a major dollar rip in the second half. That alone is reason to believ it won't happen. If I am not mistaken, didn't he call for the same thing in December?


All roads lead to gold, unless Paul Volker comes back.

Kicking and screaming......

Crude threatening to touch $120, yet the dollar is higher; new geopolitical tensions with Iran, and gold is up $2. What are you gonna do?

First, you are prolly wondering where the old Traderneal is? You know the profanity, ranting traderneal. When it comes to a market like this, what are you gonna do, what can I say. It is what it is. I can't fight the world's CB's, I can't fight GLD, which is liquidating. The only thing I can do is be secure in my beliefs that gold is going to well over $1600. The country's problems have not gone away. They are still there building every day. The cracks will continue to appear and one day this house of cards is going to come on down.

For now, I am taking my shots in the gold stocks, long and short and when the time is right, I will be buying bullion viciously. But that time is not here--yet.

The Fed is in a box......

So, we went from the country being in absolutely in the worst economic shape in its history to everything is hunky dory, all in the course of three months. WOW! The stuff they can do with modern financials these days!!

Ever since I got my arms wrapped around what was really going on in regards to the housing situation, I had always believed the Fed was in a box. On one hand they needed to cut rates and cut rates drastically in order to alleviate the housing mess so people could refinance and the economy could keep on growing. On the other hand, they had to be watchful of inflation and the dollar. In theory they tried to walk this fine line. In actuality they could give a rat's ass about inflation and all they cared about was growth. Bernanke has written how a Japanese style deflationary recession (like the one in the 90's) would never happen here. (You know, the whole dropping bills from helicopter thing.)

Now your average American can tell you about how stagflation is just raging in this country, but the Fed, the keen eyed observer they are, are just starting to realize it. So, what are they going to do about it? The market sure thinks that they will announce on April 30th a quarter more point and that's it, they are done. I am not so sure about that.

Interest rates have already spiked dramatically making it, shall I say almost impossible for those who don't have stellar credit, at least 20% down, and outstanding character to get a mortgage. If you want to refi, you need all that and a ton of equity in your house. The days of sub prime, ALT-A and liar loans is over. So, how is this going to help the housing situation? It's not, it's going to make it that much worse. Oh, but wait, housing is priced into the stock market, right?

So, if the Fed pauses, housing deteriorates even more, credit will dry up, banks won't lend, and the consumer recession will get much, much worse. So, obviously, not cutting rates won't work.

But over the last few days the bond market has been getting absolutely routed, so isn't that telling us the rate cuts are coming to an end? IMO, no. It could be the bond market confirming that inflation is already way out of control and that's why Bank of America had to float $4 billion of preferred with a coupon of 8.25%. This time last year they would have floated it at 6% or below and folks would have sucked it up. The other day, Regions Financial had to float preferred at 8.75%. Does this sound like money is becoming easier? Won't the Fed have to keep cutting. This could be interest rates finally trying to catch up to the inflation rate.

Now the other side of the coin shows us all the stimulus (cuts, various loan programs) the Fed has given us, is already very inflationary. (look around, I don't have to tell you). This is why the Fed has been jawboning about this over the last couple of weeks, they are concerned even though, IMO, they will do nothing about it. This is how the Fed is in a box. Don't cut, and growth slows dramatically, cut, and inflation gets even more out of control. My money is on them cutting and shredding the dollar.

But you are prolly asking yourself, what if they stop cutting but not raise, wouldn't that stop inflation? NO! There is simply too much money in circulation already. Reconstructed models of M3, show it to be off the charts. The only way to control inflation is to raise rates, and this Fed, no matter what they say, ain't raising rates. This isn't your Father's Fed, with Paul Volker at the helm.

But what about the commodity massacre and stock market rally over the last couple of weeks? Corrections in raging bull markets happen; nothing goes straight up and some of the commodities were going parabolic. $2600 Platinum wasn't going to last, rice and wheat had to come in. (BTW, the rice hoarding in this country is a joke. There is no shortage in the USA, it is not a staple of our diet. COST and Sam's Club news, made it a story). Gold is coming down because everyone believes the Fed is done. (That and the usual market manipulation of course--you think that IMF story about selling wasn't a well conceived plant?).

As far as the stock market rally goes, people want to believe the worst is behind us. Hell, Bill Miller says it is, who is going to argue with him? So couple some good economic good news, that is if you want to call a decrease in the weekly unemployment number good news, along with the constant barrage from CNBC, and you have the makings of a good ol' rally. Just as the sharpest sell offs happen in the context of a bull market (commodities) so do the sharpest rallies happen in the context of a bear market. I find it hard to believe the great market crash lasted all of three months. There are too many economic problems in this country to be wished/washed away by the Fed going on hold.

My guess is next Wednesday, they cut .25 (but I wouldn't rule out .50) and say they are going on hold, but they will be here if we need them. We will need them when the next crack in the system shows itself.

Random Thoughts....

Why is it gold is higher almost every night in Asia? Is it because those who know and appreciate the value of gold are buying subsidized by the mindless selling in Europe and on the Crimex?

Is the Fed really going to be done with Fed cuts?

That gold always sells off when the dollar is higher and crude is lower, but lately has not been able to rally when crude is higher and the dollar lower.

Have you noticed the dollar is in a range stuck between 71 and 72.

I really am ready to go postal on CNBC. I am getting so tired about hearing how well things are. I guess food rationing in the United States is a good thing? (If you didn't know, rice is being rationed at Costco and Sams Club.)

I am getting sick of Maria's voice and her orgasmic sounds when she has a bullish guest.

Day 6,567 of the operation against gold continues. How come we never see upside action like this....yada yada yada.

According to the bulls, when BB stops cutting rates it will kill commodities especially gold. I am not so sure of that.

At some point the newspapers have to be a buy, right?

If the day ends in "y", gold gets manipulated.

$4 gasoline is a good thing.

Wait until the ALT-A paper really starts falling.

I was talking to a 25 year veteran of Citibank and he casually told me that if/when credit card and auto loans start going, C will be in huuuuuuge trouble. Like belly up type of trouble.

I don't know about you, but I get kind of annoyed when I have to pay $50 to fill up. I am lucky, I am just annoyed, many can't afford it.

Got gold?

The suppression continues.......

The Euro is over $1.60 and oil is up $1, yet gold is only up $7 and fighting tooth and nail for every tick.

Just another example of the invisible foot that is on gold's throat. At least the gold stocks are doing well for now.

Only in the gold market......

Can it give back most of an early morning $16 gain by 2/3 when all the other factors reamin unchanged. Crude higher, dollar lower etc...etc...

The tell today is silver which can't stop tripping over its own feet. Are they selling silver to get to gold? Wouldn't surprise me.


Just when you think you have seen it all, this morning comes along.

A quick review of the morning headlines...

A quick review of the morning headlines as of Sunday 11:30am.....

Bank of England will announce Funding Plan tomorrow

Saudi Arabia has no need to raise oil production

Royal Bank of Scotland May Write Down $14 Billion share sale planned

Citi still has over $60 billion in subprime mortgages, LBO loans.

Fed and other Central Banks congratulate each other in suppression of Gold Price


All is well.

Whaddya gonna do?....

Obviously the world is fine. I mean GOOG beat by .32, C only lost $5B last quarter and announced 9,000 new job cuts, and we can deal with $117 oil, right? I mean I drive a Nissan Maxima and it now costs me $50 to fill it up (using regular). I am just very annoyed every time I have to pay that. There are many, many people that can't afford to pay that.

So because everything in the world is fine and dandy, the Fed cuts are going to end, and that means the dollar should take off like a bat out of hell. Last night of course, gold was up $5, until C's earnings, then the dollar rallied and gold got the shit kicked out of it.

When I check at 7am gold was down $5, when I got to the office it was down $23. The dollar was ripping and crude was tripping and the market was going sky high. GOOG closed up 90 points.

Gold at it's worst, was down $35 and managed to get that loss to only down $21. I will say the gold stocks acted like champs, with the HUI down only 13. Hell, gold has been up $5 and the HUI down by that amount.

Of course it's no matter that the dollar cut its gains in half and crude was up by $2 to $117. Keep repeating to yourself, "$117 oil is good for the economy!"

The country is an illusion of itself. Don't let CNBS fool you, things are bad out there. Treasury rates are rising which is going to make it harder for those who need ti, to refinance. The Fed, sensing opportunity, is jawboning that they are done raising rates. IMO, it is nothing we haven't heard before. In fact, on the 30th, they will cut rates and talk tough and say they are done. I wouldn't believe it.

This is the box the Fed is in. Are they going to cut rates and sacrifice the dollar or are they not going to do anything and kill what's left of the housing market? You tell me.

Gartman was on Fast Money tonight saying that he sees a huge seller at $950 who won't let gold lift beyond that number. You know who that is of course. So, we now know who and where gold is being capped.

Back to the market for a second. The financials were very strong in the early going, but did not close well, what that means is either it was profit taking or no one believes that much of the BS.

In all, all roads lead to gold. But this is one of those extended detours. that we have to deal with.

We are getting that hot poker yet once again.....

June gold last night hit $956 and is now trading at $944. Looking at the daily chart, it was quite clear gold got raided around 6:30am as the rug was pulled from under it. Why? Who knows? Crude is flat and the dollar is slightly higher.

Then again on the other hand.....

Crude just started to spill, now down $1 and taking gold with it. Gold has given back 25% of it's gains, and now up $15.

Sigh.......


Gold barely goes up when crude rips yet gets crushed when crude gets sold.



It never ends.

Very Nice.....

Up $20 and the gold stocks tagging along. Could it be? Could it be? YES!!! I do believe we have the fabled and very rarely seen Trifecta!!!!

I am licking my lips as to when I can short this market. Because INTC said things are better, and JPM only had to write off $5B, things are good?

Sell Mortimer Selllllll...........

Gold up $10 as of 7:20am as the dollar is getting crushed, and oil well over $114. Like I have said before, whenever the dollar is getting crushed from the get go, it usually rebounds and at 8:30 CPI comes out giving it the perfect excuse.

Maybe it's my six year old.......

There should be no doubt whatsoever in anyone's mind that gold is being restrained, it's so obvious that it's laughable. You know when your kids try and cover up something, and they do such a bad job that it's quite obvious they did it, that you just have to laugh at the attempt? That's what it has come down to in the gold and currency market. Maybe it's my six year old that is responsible for all this; I wouldn't put it past her.

This morning gold was humming along up $10, when the PPI was announced, and as expected it went sky high but only for the things we need to live on: food and energy. This of course gave reason for the dollar to rally and thus knocked gold back to only up a couple of bucks. Screw the fact that stagflation is running rampant, screw the fact that oil went over $114 for a new record high, screw the fact that more and more of each American's paycheck is going strictly for food and fuel, screw the fact that many soft commodities (grains) are at all time highs, and finally screw the fact that there are food shortages all over the world that are leading to riots.

So what happens when crude finally has a correction, no matter how small it may be? Gold will prolly get the shit kicked out of it. What happens if the dollar keeps on rallying and oil corrects? Then gold will REALLY get the shit kicked out of it.

Tonight, Intel, which had lowered it's guidance twice since last quarter, beat it's very lowered guidance and the stock rallied a point and change. Everybody will be orgasmic tomorrow that the good times are here once again. Intel, earned .25, a quarter. Annualized that's $1.00 or 23 times earnings. Ohhhhhh......pinch me. I suppose this will make up for $4 gas, and I guess the housing and derivative situation has been taken care of also.

What is going on right now is complete bullshit and is a lesson in happy talk. In the words of Bruce Springsteen (BRUUUUUUUUUUUCE)....."The Country has been sold an illusion of itself."

All roads point to gold, even though there are literally hundreds of roadblocks set up to deter it from going to where it needs to go.

I would laugh if I wasn't already crying.....

So, today, we have obvious runaway stagflation and record oil prices and what does gold do? Before the inflation numbers gold was up $10, now it's up $1+, so a quick $9 sell off from the highs. In other words, business as usual.

Ho-Ho-Ho.......

Now the dollar is really getting smoked as the Euro is approaching $1.59 again, oil is up $1 and gold is up $2. Now if the situation was reverse would gold be off $2? Come to think of it, the situation was reversed 12 hours ago, and gold was down $10!!!!!

Fair market? You tell me.

Ok, here's a new bitch......

It is 7:15am, and I just check in on the markets to find the dollar is getting slammed (who woulda thunk that?) but gold true to form is down $2, not a great biggie and a nice bounce from $917, where it actually had to bounce twice from that level. Sighhhhh.........gold gets crushed when the dollar goes down, and can't go higher when the dollar goes lower.

This time five weeks ago......

When the Bear Stearns bailout was announced, gold was up some $30 in Asia, I was very worried that the gain would not hold. It turned out I was correct.

Now flash forward to tonight where the G-7 verbally masturbated everyone in believing that the dollar is going to have some huge turnaround and gold is down $9. I have absolutely no faith whatsoever that gold is going to rebound. However, I am scared shitless that when I first check into gold in the morning it will be down at least $20. Actually I have no doubts whatsoever that come 7:30am gold will be close, if not under $900.

All this and things keep getting worse. F'ing amazing.

Things are so wonderful......

That Wachovia Bank is set announce a capital infusion of $6-$7Billion tomorrow at a 15% discount to Friday's closing price.

Just got back from dinner and see that gold is at the lows down $10. Tomorrow should just be a joy.

God, do I hate this manipulation bullshit. And you can argue with me all you want, this is all horseshit that is done to drive down the price of gold.

And so it begins....

At 5:20pm, the dollar index is up .46 and the Euro is under 1.57 from 1.582. See, the bullshit never ends. The gold market is not yet open but will be in about 40 minutes. I know this will wind up be a short term move, but still it just fucking stinks that shit continues to go on day after day, week after week. The jawboning never stops and the market doesn't have the balls to look past it.

March Redux?.......

The gold market is starting to repeat the behavior around March 17th; the Euro is making new highs while gold is being held back. We all know what happened after the Fed "only cut by 3/4 of a point instead of one full point. In fact, the take down that day was so orchestrated the day the Fed announced it's cut, the gold stocks were getting crushed while the overall market was zooming higher. It was then gold managed to fall 10%+ while the fundamentals never changed. I also find it very worrisome most major commodities have recovered to their yearly highs, while gold and silver have not.

The above, coupled with the IMF sales (just the threat-not the actual sale, remember the threat is more important than the action) the bullshit of the G-7 meeting in regards to a stronger dollar, leads me to believe that we could be on a cusp of yet another correction in gold bringing us to new lows for the cycle.

Keep in mind, when I make these type of calls I am usually wrong, however, usually I am making these type of calls out of anger and hysteria. However, it is Sunday mooring at 10:30am, my wife and kids are out of the house and I am watching Sports Center and pretty relaxed and thinking with a clear head.

So what to do? We all know the situation is terrible and getting worse by the day. The London Times is reporting that Merill and Citi are going to announce $15B in write downs this week, retail sales come out tomorrow morning, and finally this is the first week of earnings (pre)announcements. Should be fun.

When I make these type of proclamations, one of two things happen, I am dead right, or dead wrong. usually I am dead wrong, but we shall see. But I am very nervous when I log on at 8pm to see where gold is trading. However, prolly as to form, gold will be ok in Asia but get the beat down when Europe opens. It really doesn't ever end, does it?

Just remember, when the system finally implodes, that all roads............

Good Stuff......

John Embry comments on the takedown of gold and how the CB's are facing the equivalent of Custard's Last Stand.


http://www.sprott.com/pdf/investorsdigest/digest.pdf

UH-OH.......

The basic message from the G-7 on Friday was a stronger dollar vs. the world's major currencies. Now they have said this before and the dollar has continued its slide. However, this time, at least according to published reports, the communique' had an added urgency. So this time, basically, they are saying they want a stronger dollar but this time they really, really, really, realllllllllllllllly, mean it! (God-Dammit!!).

Like the IMF gold sales, the intent over the action is what really matters here. Yes, the dollar will prolly get a bump on Monday causing gold to fall below $800, but like everything else that has to do with the United States, it all goes back to the fundamentals. And as we all know they suck.

Could you tell I was a little more than pissed yesterday? It was more of the same in this gold market. GE shits the bed, the dollar tanks, gold while having a real nice rebound from the overnight lows, manages to go a bit higher, then crashes back to those overnight lows before rebounding to close down about $4. The equivalent of what happened to gold would have been if GE was up $4 instead of down $4. The dollar tanked, (but of course managed to cut those losses by more than half) crude was up .20 and gold was down. Now this type of stuff happens, I get that. But, you can't have gold selling off everyday no matter what happens with the dollar and crude. And, I pray to Buddah every single night that gold finally starts acting on its own volition. Hasn't happened yet. Maybe praying to another God might work?

Just complete and utter bullshit......

Now down $11 and at the fucking lows of the day. Like the GE blowup never happened. This shit is just unbelievable and the fact that we have to go through this on a daily basis is fucking rough as hell.

Amazing how a security can ignore all the news that is positive for it almost all the time, yet over emphasize the bad news most of the time.

Just truly amazing.....

Gold down $5 with the dollar tanking. This is the equivalent of a mugging on a busy street in the middle of the day; ballsy and no one cares.

IT NEVER ENDS!

Watch and learn kiddies....

GE shit the bed and that has things in a state of upheaval. Gold was down $8 and is back to flat. The dollar is getting walloped again, but, it was all at once, so keep your eye on it and watch it prolly clawback the way it did yesterday.

So, dollar getting smoked and gold flat. Sounds about right. (That was sarcasm).


However, just in case gold decides to find some testicular fortitude, I have purchased a few gold stocks on the cheap. I just think in the real world, gold should be much higher. In fact, this leads me to my next bitch; why has every commodity come back towards its highs except gold and silver? You tell me.

Once again we take the hot poker up the ass.....

I have noticed that whenever I come into the office and the dollar is down heavily it always reverses. I guess the exchange stabliztion fund needs its coffee.



Anyway, gold is down $10 on a slight dollar bump and oil down $1. Fuck the fact that yesterday the dollar was down heavy and crude was up $3. This shit never ends, ever. And of course the market is ripping, which leads me to something else that always pisses me off.



When was the last time the market, gold and gold stocks have been higher together?

Just watching gold trade is amazing....

It's amazing to just watch gold try and go higher, every tick higher is like pulling teeth. Yet, on the down side, it slides right down like a toddler on a swing set sliding board.

Yes, I know gold has had a $20 reversal from the lows, but watching it trade, it sure looks like it's being capped to me up $10+. The dollar is tanking, yet again, breaking 72 and oil is over $111.

Hold on 'Lisabeth, I'm comin......

WOW, a $10 reversal from the lows, done on the CRIMEX yet. Do wonders ever cease? Of course it's way early and the oil inventory numbers come out later, so we'll see.

Nothing matters anymore.....

First, the back is much better. Motrin and time heals all. My wife had me back to doing chores today, as the bad back excuse wasn't working after two days. It didn't help my cause that I was walking without a limp.

Anyhoo, time to focus my anger on the gold market as once again as the true nature of the market has emerged over the last two days.

I honestly have lost track of everything the Fed has done to try and right the credit crunch. From bailing out Bear Stearns to the many ABC programs they have enacted to pump money into the economy. Whatever they are doing so far it's not working as banks are not lending money. Also, everything they are doing was supposed to lower mortgage rates; buzzzzzzzzzzzz....oh thanks for playing; that hasn't worked well either as rates are higher now then they have been in some time.

In a regular free market this would be a boon for gold and gold would be well over $1500 an ounce. But, we all know how free this market truly is. After the take down of gold from over $1,000, we are once again back to the bad old days where all rallies are sold, all good news for gold is met with selling, and finally, gold attaches itself to any market that is down. So be sure to watch the mackerel futures in Iceland as those things can be a bitch.

And because we were such good kiddies, the IMF gold sales reared their ugly head today as they announced they were going to sell some 14 million ounces. But they promised that it would be done in an orderly fashion over time as to not disrupt the market. The act like they haven't had every Asian and Middle Eastern Central Bank hasn't inquired about buying the hole slug at once. The idea here is not so much the sales as the idea that the sales are constantly hanging over the market. The sales are something to remind the market of when the times, or the price get to high.

Now, the fact that the IMF can't sell an ounce until the US gives its Congressional blessing was lost on the market today. Oh, and that the IMF also said they won't do anything until the new administration is in place, so in my opinion they are prolly a year away from doing anything. Again, it's the threat and not the action they want the market to be worried about. And to prove that the threat scares the market, look at the action today. Gold was trading around $925 in Asia and, as usual, once Europe opened, boom, it was a quick $7 down and then once again when the CRIMEX opened, it was another $7 down for a tidy total of $14 in the hole with flat oil and a flat dollar. To it's credit gold cut those losses in half.

But here we are once again, gold as the whipping boy. It doesn't matter if crude is up, gold will be flat, but if crude is down, gold gets crushed, same with the dollar. It almost seems like gold is the only security in the world that doesn't trade on fundamentals.

Sigh...........I once again grow weary of this game.

Getting old is a bitch......

I am 41 years old, which by no measure is old by any stretch of the imagination, but goddamn, I sure am not and do not feel 21. Today, my family and I did something extremely stupid (in hindsight) based on my suggestion: went roller skating.

Now, I have not been roller skating since I was in the seventh grade, some 28 years ago. My wife has not been skating probably in over 20 years ago, and my two girls ages 10 and 6 have never been skating. How else could we kill a chilly, rainy Sunday in NJ? I sure wasn't in the mood for a typical kids movie.

On the way over to the rink my wife and I wondered if they would play "our" music the way they played it back in the early 80's, would we hear "Shook me all Night Long," Come on Feel the Noise," and other rock classics from back in the day?

Arriving at the rink, it was like time stood still. My wife, who grew up around where we live now, said she remembered the rink exactly the way it was. And as for me, it was almost the same as the rink where I grow up, in Southampton Pa.

After paying a total of $34 which included rentals, we got our skates, put them on the kids and then ourselves and off we went. I was wondering if it was like riding a bike, would my wife and still be able to do it? The quick story, yes, but nearly as good as I remember I could, but my wife skated like she stopped yesterday, she was very good. The kids picked it up pretty quickly with the six year old doing a great job. The 10 year old, really wasn't too interested, and saying she is into her pre-teen whiny period, really didn't want to be seen with us.

After a few jitters, I got going pretty well and after a few times around I didn't even need to hold the wall anymore. From the way my legs were feeling, I knew it was going to be painful in the morning. To say I am less active than I was back when I was 21 is an understatement.

We skated for about two hours, with just some minor bumps for the kids who had fallen a couple of times but by some miracle my wife and I remained strangers with the ground. Not to test fate, but we decided that two hours of skating would be enough and agreed that we would be leaving in about 10 minutes.

I was doing pretty well and was going prolly close to my fastest speed of the day and thinking all along about how amazed I was that I hadn't fallen. When of course, I fell, and fell hard. I don't know how I fell, there was no one around me, so I didn't trip over anyone. I don't think I tripped myself, so my usual klutziness wasn't to blame. All I knew, I fell on my side and it hurt. I laid there for a few seconds, and thought I was ok, as all I thought I did was just lightly knock the wind out of myself. My younger daughter who was behind me skated up to me and I thought oh how nice, she'll say something to make me feel better. Does she say anything remotely like that? No of course not. She yelled "AND DOWN GOES DADDY!!!"

I was on my knees when the attendant skated over and asked me if I was ok, I told him I thought so and I got up and skated off without a problem. I skated prolly around the rink one more time, and besides a light cramping in my lower back, I felt fine as I had gotten my breath back. My wife came over to me and inquired how I was doing and told ok, but enough was enough and I headed to the benches to call it a day. I had tempted fate enough for one day.

At the benches, I helped take my older daughter's skates off, then changed into my shoes; I had no problem doing that. However, when I stood up, all hell broke loose. I could not put any pressure on my left leg. This was not good. You have not lived, until you are disabled at a roller skating rink full of kids. By some stroke of luck and a hell of a lot of pain later, I made it back to the car. I was in agony. I just preyed I did not break my hip.

We got home about fifteen minutes later and it took me literally five minutes to get out of the car. Not good. I could not walk at all. Deep down, I really thought all was ok, and it really felt just like a bad case of sciatica which is the nerve that runs from the middle of your back to your lower thigh. Believe me, if you have ever had sciatica pain, you know what it is.

I hate hospitals, and the thought of going to the emergency room makes me blanch, but this was something that really need to be checked out, JUST in case it was something more. So my wife and I agreed it was prolly the smart thing to go and have it looked at and have an xray taken.

Luckily, I have only been to the Centra State Medical Center ER just a couple of times and from past experience I will say Centra State is a wonderful hospital. Both my kids were born there, I had ulner nerve transposition surgery there, and I have not one negative word about the place.

To make a real long story short, 2hrs later and about 20 x-rays later, I was out of there. Luckily, all the x-rays were normal and the doctor agreed with me that it was prolly sciatica. So, I left the hospital with some 800mg Motrin, which THE drug you need to fight sciatica, some percocet and some flexerall. I am not one to take a lot of medicines, but in the next week if you read some weird posts, you'll know why.

To think at age 41, I needed to worry about a broken hip is scary. To think at age 41, I can temporarily barley walk is scary. Over these last few years, I am realizing that life is sprinting by at a pace in which I am unhappy with. I can't believe my oldest daughter is 10 years old already. It almost seems like yesterday, that my wife and I could take off on a moment's notice and do anything we wanted, when truth be told, those days are long gone. Time needs to slow down. But, as we all know time slows down for no one. So I guess the only thing to do is enjoy things more while we can still appreciate them.

Oh well, enough dwelling on the syruppy aspects of life, I will be back tomorrow with usual crap as for today, I just wanted to jot down a few notes about how getting older sucks. Now please excuse me while I enjoy my percocet and flexerall.

Lucky to get out alive!.......

This morning the CEO of OFIX resigned. Now normally that's good for a point or two on the downside. If I see a news flash that a CEO or CFO resigned and he is leaving for "personal" reasons, I will short the stock and hope to make a point or more.

This morning the CEO of OFIX resigned and the stock was down 5 to 35. Now to me, that was an over reaction so I bot a small position. Literally, less than three minutes later I was DOWN 5 points as the stock quickly cratered to 30. I have never lost money that quickly! The only saving grace I saw was volume was not that heavy. So, I found the testicular fortitude, closed my eyes and bot some more.

Long story short, I got out with my ass intact as the stock rallied back to slightly below where I bot it. I sold my stock and can now thank God I can still fight.

Now I just know this stock is going higher, but when you have a near death experience like this, you don't care.

For those of you who don't trade, you have no idea the pain of watching a stock crater that quickly. It is not fun. Funny, but I can't remember ever having a stock rally 5 points in three minutes.

Hope?.....

I see a ray of hope in that gold did not completely sink into the abyss and the dollar did not rip to the stratosphere. But this is gold so anything can happen.


Oh, and the Feb job numbers were revised downward, so the news is doubly bad. Things are getting worse.


Oh yeah, one more thing, in yet another gold market rule, gold only follows oil down. Oil is screaming higher and gold, OH MY GOD, has just gone positive! Up $2.


HOLD ON ELIZABETH, I'M COMIN' THIS IS THE BIG ONE!!!!!!!!!!

Here we go......

Horrible jobs number, and right on schedule the dollar dips and gold rips. However, literally, 8 minutes later, gold dips and the dollar rips.


It never fucking ends.


All is well.

Remember, tomorrow is jobs Friday.....

Having had the day off yesterday, and not getting home to almost midnight, I was not really surprised to see gold up $20, after all, I was away from a computer all day and that's what usually happens. So, you're welcome.

However, I was surprised to see spot off $10 this morning when I got to the office, and was even more shocked to see the dollar ripping yet again on no news. Oh well, that's the way the market works theses days.

Now, imagine my surprise when June gold ripped $12 higher as the dollar reversed course on just the stellar weekly jobs claims which seem to belie all the talk that all is well in the economy.

Anyhoo, tomorrow is the real show as it is jobs Friday and I will be laying my bets on how the day is going to go:

I can imagine walking in with gold up a few dollars and the dollar mildly down. However, after the number is announced, and if (prolly) it's shitty, gold will rip and the dollar will melt. Then, usually no longer than 1/2 hour after the jobs announcement, the dollar will magically find support and start climbing straight up and will not continue to stop. This in turn will cause gold to break and break hard.

This has been the action of gold on jobs Friday when the number has been bad for the last few months. I have no idea what will happen if the number is deemed bullish as I can't remember the last time the number has been good. I guess, this being gold, it would be down hard.

Forecast: More pain......

Just remember, we are all pawns in this game that is controlled by those who are infinitely more powerful than us. They win the battles, we will win the war.

I am not going to rehash today's events except to say that by this point it should be quite obvious even to the most casual viewer of gold, how fixed this market really is.

Anyway, judging from the action already, it seems like more pain is in store. Gold at one point tonight was up $6. However, at 11:30 it is up a whole .50. This is the pattern that gold followed last night, so I think tomorrow could bring more of the same as today.

On the other hand, I will be out of the office tomorrow for my first day off in six months and historically whenever I am out of contact with a computer for trading purposes, gold seems to have a good day. So, you have that going for you.

Really, what's the sense anymore?.....

"They" win. "They" always win. Why try anymore. Just 2 1/2 weeks ago, we were all talking about a massive commercial signal failure (massive short squeeze) especially in silver, and that finally the shorts were going to get theirs. Then, its seems, the order came to cap gold. An order which has been in effect for two weeks now. So what, the Euro almost made a new high today, sell gold. So what, that Lehman Brothers, raised $3 Billion today, especially when they said they were fine, sell gold. What's the use of even trying?

Why do they cap gold you ask? Look at it this way. Let's say you are a doctor and have a very sick patient (The US economy). You are doing everything in your power to try and get this patient better via all types of drugs (The FED and everything they are doing, loans, rate cuts etc). You try and you try but the patients vital signs keep on getting worse (a higher gold price). You as the doctor will realize the patient is either going to die or get better vis a vie the drugs you are administering. The vital signs are the indicator and you as the doctor cannot change those. But if you are the Fed, and the economy is not responding to the drugs you are giving it (again, rate cuts, bailouts, etc) you have the power to change the one indicator that is signaling all is not well, and that would be gold. We all know a sky rocketing gold price does not bode well for an economy, it signals something is wrong somewhere. But the Fed has the power, through it's "friends" to cap the gold price. And that is exactly what has happened over the last two weeks.

And that leads me back to my original point, really what's the sense anymore?

Everyone, except Sinclair is calling for a top in gold. Do you know how to realize the top is in? When gold goes down in Asia on a constant basis. For now all we have is this bullshit where gold goes down starting at 2am when it hit Europe. However, the paper sellers are doing a great job on the CRIMEX.