You've Got To Be Kidding Me

A discussion on gold, silver, and the markets.

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Location: Freehold, NJ, United States

Married with two children and one toy poodle which was not my first choice but I like her anyway. Been on the Street since 1989, mostly as a retail broker.

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Sunday, April 13, 2008

March Redux?.......

The gold market is starting to repeat the behavior around March 17th; the Euro is making new highs while gold is being held back. We all know what happened after the Fed "only cut by 3/4 of a point instead of one full point. In fact, the take down that day was so orchestrated the day the Fed announced it's cut, the gold stocks were getting crushed while the overall market was zooming higher. It was then gold managed to fall 10%+ while the fundamentals never changed. I also find it very worrisome most major commodities have recovered to their yearly highs, while gold and silver have not.

The above, coupled with the IMF sales (just the threat-not the actual sale, remember the threat is more important than the action) the bullshit of the G-7 meeting in regards to a stronger dollar, leads me to believe that we could be on a cusp of yet another correction in gold bringing us to new lows for the cycle.

Keep in mind, when I make these type of calls I am usually wrong, however, usually I am making these type of calls out of anger and hysteria. However, it is Sunday mooring at 10:30am, my wife and kids are out of the house and I am watching Sports Center and pretty relaxed and thinking with a clear head.

So what to do? We all know the situation is terrible and getting worse by the day. The London Times is reporting that Merill and Citi are going to announce $15B in write downs this week, retail sales come out tomorrow morning, and finally this is the first week of earnings (pre)announcements. Should be fun.

When I make these type of proclamations, one of two things happen, I am dead right, or dead wrong. usually I am dead wrong, but we shall see. But I am very nervous when I log on at 8pm to see where gold is trading. However, prolly as to form, gold will be ok in Asia but get the beat down when Europe opens. It really doesn't ever end, does it?

Just remember, when the system finally implodes, that all roads............

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