I know what I know and that is all.

For those who have followed me, know that I am pretty good at calling the Fed over the last decade.  During the period of 2010-2015, after the markets were saved, @dividendmaster (on twitter) and I use to have yearly bets on what the Fed was going to do. Most years it was nothing, even though they huffed and puffed about raising rates.  For about 4 years running I won our yearly bet.  In the fifth year, he finally won the bet, in December.  (I'm being approximate here, I'm too lazy too look it up, but you get my drift).

During the period when the Fed left rates alone, I would argue: "How strong could the economy be if the Fed was afraid of getting rid of ZIRP (Zero Interest Rate Policy for you newbies). 

Since 2005, I have argued the only thing the FED cares about is the stock market.  America, as a country, values itself solely on stock market valuations.  The country could be humming along,  full (real) unemployment, political harmony, and finally even with everyone, black, white, yellow, singing Kumbaya in the streets if the stock market was in the shitter, the Fed would be responsive.

Let's take a look at the markets today.  Since the night Trump was elected, and remember the futures that night showed a -1000 Dow reading, the market has gone insane up what 40% at the ATH? (Again, to lazy to look).  Unemployment is at "record lows" and until recently the markets were humming along.

Given this backdrop, the Fed was talking and actually acted tough for a while.  However, throw in a few falling economic numbers and things didn't quite look as rosy.  Never mind in my 51 years on this planet I have never seen this country torn apart, politically, as it is today. (I'm too young to remember the Vietnam war and what that was actually like.)  But through this period the stock market held up beautifully, so it was full steam ahead for the FED.

But oops.  The stock market had a 10% correction from all time highs and Trump threw a few grenades toward Powell via Twitter.  So what happens?  The Fed goes into full panic mode and Powell comes out and says things are getting weaker and the hikes are pretty much done.  Ok.  Whatever.  Are the markets even allowed to have a general run of the mill correction anymore?  If every time the market goes down for an extended period is Cramer going to whine on real money?

The Country and the markets MUST be allowed to have normal economic cycles.  Stifling the negative cycles will only make those cycles that much worse when the inevitable comes do.

The following figures I DID look up:  Since 1972 the cumulative average of a 30 year mortgage is 8.10%.  For comparison the average today is roughly 4.90%.  (http://www.fedprimerate.com/mortgage_rates.htm)

Ok, so you scream to me "But the 1972-2018 had extreme periods of interest rates, as high as 18% in 1981 and the lowest in January of 2013 at 3.41%.  So let's look at interest rates from 1921 though 1947.  Looking at various charts rates ranged from a high slightly above 6.0% in 1921 down to a rate slightly lower than 4.5% in 1945.  The last year in the chart I'm looking at is 1956 and rates were at 5%.

When I first got into the selling bonds for a living in 1991, one of the first bonds I can remember selling was a 8 year PA Turnpike Bond, AAA (when AAA meant AAA) at 6% at par.  Only the shittiest of a shit muni will yield 6% today. 

My point is at some point the FED has to forgo the stock market to bring rates back into historical normalcy.  The FED needs to grow up and normalize rates the markets be damned.  I argued during the Great Depression that the FED should have burned it all down and started fresh.  IMO, the gov't should've announced they were seizing troubled banks, guaranteeing deposits and letting the Country go to even greater levels of shit than it went to.  Let the rain wash away ALL the filth if you will.  It would have been survival of the fittest amongst the banks.

Shall I even get into the fact how the FED though their interest rate policy has pushed savers out of the banks into the markets?  If checking and savings accounts (hell, even CD's) came back to historical norms, how much money would flow out of the markets? 

Ohhhhh........I get it now.

Tap...Tap...Tap...Is this thing on?

It's been a while.  Almost 10.5 years since I last wrote on this blog, a lot has happened since then.

To bring you up to speed, 10.5 years ago,  I was extremely bearish on the markets and extremely bullish on gold.  I was eventually proven 100% correct.  The problem was, I was early, very early.

Back in the early 2000's, once I fully understood the disaster that was housing was going to unfurl on the US (and world) economy, I started investing in gold.  My first purchase of gold was under $400 and my first silver purchase was around $3.  I took some time to really understand the situation and how gold and silver would eventually play out.  No one cared.  I was mocked, laughed and ridiculed.  Even when gold finally broke $400, $500, $600, all I heard from everyone was that it wouldn't last and if I didn't sell I was a moron.  The stock market kept marching higher.

Finally, after the shit hit the fan, I did start selling.  I sold when gold first hit $1500 on the way up and got out of most around $1650ish.  I actually top ticked silver and sold some at $50 but dropped the rest on the way down around the $40ish level.  My clients who listened and I had the last laugh.

Then the world's stock markets became what I like to call hiddedly-piddedly. (extremely fucked up).  In short, IMO, the only thing that saved the markets was the Fed.  It can be argued if the markets were "saved" or the ultimate was just put off."

So where are we today and what do I think?

First not many care what I think, but since you're reading this, I believe you might.

Back in 2007-2008, very few believed the market correction was going to be as severe as it turned out.  Anyone and everyone said just hold onto your stocks and this will pass.  It didn't.

Compare this to today's markets.  EVERYONE is freaking out over a 10% correction from the all time highs (ATH).  It's like Wall Street forgot that stocks can go down over a period of time.  IMO, this, for now, is simply a valuation correction and I don't see a credit crisis coming.  To what level stocks correct to, I have no idea.

I will say the idea of a company like GE possibly going belly up and no really caring is interesting to say the least.

Now that being said, this could easily turn into a bigly rout if someone big (I'm looking at you Deutsche Bank) goes belly up or even a real whiff of trouble from a major player is exposed. You know that whole contagion thingy.  However, for the most part I do believe the banks are light years ahead now as compared to 2008.

But c'mon, how much more expensive could the FANG stocks get?  How much more air could be under marijuana stocks?  However, unlike the dot com bubble, these are real companies with real earnings.  Amazon, IMO, is the greatest company in terms of customer service and products that has ever walked the Earth.  However, I wouldn't touch that stock with a ten foot pole, even now.

Facebook, while a real company, could literally be gone in two years and no one would miss them at all.  (For the record, I only use FB for some newsgroups; I don't care to post my thoughts or pictures nor do I go through my feed that often.)

You can ask around on Twitter that I have a pretty good and accurate record in calling the Fed's moves.  I am usually contrarian to what everyone thinks.  For almost this entire tightening cycle, I have been saying that the Fed will keep the pedal to the metal UNTIL the stock market cracks.  Again, just 10% off ATH's, and we are already hearing of Fed surrendering.  The FED is a slave to the stock market as that is how the USA measures its wealth.

Finally, let's talk about pet rocks, I mean cryptocurrencies.  Look, I am not the brightest bulb on the tree, the sharpest knife in the draw, etc etc, but if you could not see how this was almost a complete mania then you have no business in the markets.  What gets me about the cryptos was everyone who loved them hated gold for the same exact reasons!  They argued for cryptos that they were a storage of wealth vs the dollar, they would have widespread use, they were "safe" (Say what you will, but I never lost a 1/10 of an ounce of my gold or silver due to theft unlike the millions lost in the crypto space due to theft)

The only use for cryptos that was widely accepted across the world was to trade them.  One could argue the same for gold and silver; but then again, gold and silver have, what, a 6,000 year history.

Finally, when gold and silver got crushed from $1900 to $1100 (where I finally picked some up--but I am agnostic now) the gold haters were tap dancing on the grave all the way down.  With the crypto carnage all I hear about is the pain.  Not that this was a beanie baby bubble multiplied to the extreme.