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Ok, enough......
I have often stated that I am long term bull and believe that gold is going to well over $1600 and the dollar is going to hell in a hand basket. I absolutely refuse to believe that things are getting better just because Bear Stearns was bailed out; I just fail to believe the bullshit that is being spewed that everything is hunky dory.
Now, don't get me wrong. I trade for a living and have been doing pretty well shorting the hell out of the gold stocks since Monday of last week. In fact, if you noticed the close on a few AMEX gold stocks from last Friday (GSS, MFN, NXG), for some reason they had huge buy imbalances on the close and were gapped up. I shorted the hell of GSS and sold my MFN as that was an absolute gift close. (I went long MFN for a trade as it was acting well.) However, I have sold not one share of any gold stocks in my retirement accounts and have not sold as little as 1/10th of an ounce of my bullion. (Now, am I sorry I didn't sell my palladium? Hell yeah!! But I digress.)
My point is, either you believe the gold story or you don't. If you think the story is over, sell all your bullion and be done with it. If you do believe in the story, then this too shall pass. I will freely admit to having been very spooked reading all the stories about what grand shape the economy is in, and how the bull is back. It makes me want to sell and never look back.
But then I sit back and examine what is really going on here: the economy is in a mess no matter what the Fed does, multi-billions of dollars are coming into the financial system, a major wall street investment bank was bailed out, another one, though not a major (CIT) is on the verge of collapse and had to draw down it's credit lines, people still can't afford the house they are in and can't refi no matter how low rates are. And after I do this, I realize that without a doubt, my money is in the right place. Basically, I grab my balls and take a stand and realize that I should be heavily buying these dips.
I lost a shitload of money during May 2006, but I came back and I have 100% absolute conviction that gold will make a stunning comeback again. And when that happens, the Guy Adamai's of the world, who haven't a clue about gold, will still be bad mouthing it calling it a useless relic. They don't understand now, and they won't understand at $1600.
It's gut check time. Are you with gold or against it?
Now, don't get me wrong. I trade for a living and have been doing pretty well shorting the hell out of the gold stocks since Monday of last week. In fact, if you noticed the close on a few AMEX gold stocks from last Friday (GSS, MFN, NXG), for some reason they had huge buy imbalances on the close and were gapped up. I shorted the hell of GSS and sold my MFN as that was an absolute gift close. (I went long MFN for a trade as it was acting well.) However, I have sold not one share of any gold stocks in my retirement accounts and have not sold as little as 1/10th of an ounce of my bullion. (Now, am I sorry I didn't sell my palladium? Hell yeah!! But I digress.)
My point is, either you believe the gold story or you don't. If you think the story is over, sell all your bullion and be done with it. If you do believe in the story, then this too shall pass. I will freely admit to having been very spooked reading all the stories about what grand shape the economy is in, and how the bull is back. It makes me want to sell and never look back.
But then I sit back and examine what is really going on here: the economy is in a mess no matter what the Fed does, multi-billions of dollars are coming into the financial system, a major wall street investment bank was bailed out, another one, though not a major (CIT) is on the verge of collapse and had to draw down it's credit lines, people still can't afford the house they are in and can't refi no matter how low rates are. And after I do this, I realize that without a doubt, my money is in the right place. Basically, I grab my balls and take a stand and realize that I should be heavily buying these dips.
I lost a shitload of money during May 2006, but I came back and I have 100% absolute conviction that gold will make a stunning comeback again. And when that happens, the Guy Adamai's of the world, who haven't a clue about gold, will still be bad mouthing it calling it a useless relic. They don't understand now, and they won't understand at $1600.
It's gut check time. Are you with gold or against it?
posted by Neal | 12:53 AM
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