You've Got To Be Kidding Me

A discussion on gold, silver, and the markets.

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Location: Freehold, NJ, United States

Married with two children and one toy poodle which was not my first choice but I like her anyway. Been on the Street since 1989, mostly as a retail broker.

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Wednesday, January 23, 2008

Can we for once get the trifecta?

Over the last few weeks all I heard on the media is "WE NEED RATE CUTS AND WE NEED THEM NOW!!!!! All I heard yesterday on TV was "WE WANTED A FULL POINT CUT, NOT 3/4!!! Today, driving in, all I heard was "WHY DID HE CUT 3/4 OF A POINT, WHAT DOES THE FED SEE OR KNOW THAT'S COMING DOWN THE PIKE?!?

Gotta love the financial media.

This morning gold was down $13 and the market was heading for shitsville with the S+P down 20. Soon though, gold was turning things around and briefly won back all the $13 it lost and then crossed $900 up about $6. (The brick wall is up again at $900) After the stock market opened, the gold stocks were up nicely as the the market almost went positive. Something funny then happened, the gold stocks started to tank hard and this gave a glimpse of things to come.

After the market came back to the flat line, it quickly went right back into the crapper and soon we were at the lows of the days, down almost 40 S+P points. Commodities were having the life squeezed out of them. Oil was down over $2, sugar was getting crushed, cotton was limit down. It was like every single financial market, with the exception of bonds, was getting whapped with the ugly stick. Gold, to it's credit had given up it's gains (naturally) and was only down about $3. However, as the market worsened, gold gave up the ghost and some late selling forced it to closed down about $10. (I am speaking about the April contract, I realized spot closed down $5ish.)

Of course, gold started to dump the second I hit the send button on an angry email I sent to a commentator at RealMoney.com. I was angrily chastising this guy because he wrote on the site that he was going to short gold simply because every other commodity was going down and gold would soon be next.

I am getting fed up with those in the media constantly bashing gold; especially those that haven't a clue, which is most of them. People who are bashing gold simply because of the slowing world economy are going to lose money as they don't get it. They have to start realizing that gold is losing it's commodity status and gaining it's currency status. Read last night's entry to find out what I am mean. I am getting tired of repeating it.

Anyway, after being down 40 points in the S+P, the market had a bunch of false starts before it really got going, and once it did, there was no turning back. The Dow finished up 300, while the S+P closed up 30. Gold gained back everything it lost and was up a few bucks in the access session. The HUI which at one point was down 25, closed down 9.

Last night, ECB's Trichet, stuck to his guns and said he was concerned about inflation and not about to cut rates anytime. Now, I don't know if he is just jawboning like Ben, but that was prolly the reason the markets were down so much in the morning. One would think that given his stance, that would be dollar bearish and bullish for gold. After all, Ben is cutting rates, and the ECB is not. That wasn't the case though as the dollar was strong against the Euro. However, by the end of the day the dollar was flat.

I thought about where the stock market would be going over the next few days. No matter what you hear, interest rate cuts are good for the financial stocks, at least in the short term. (History has shown that after the third cut, the market is lower than where it was after the first cut) I guessed that the market would soon be bottoming as the market was way oversold. I was somewhat shocked to see the carnage in the early going. I did not think we would rally today. However, I think the markets will rally into the Fed announcement a week from today. I think he will cut .25, the markets will not like that and the bear will feast again. The bear, like the monster in Cloverfield (excellent movie BTW, go see it) will destroy everything in its path if Ben does not cut.

One of the reasons for the rally was a NY regulator proposed a bail out of the monoline insurers. Also, a Senator suggested a Federal Bailout of the bad mortgages. However, for now he only suggested a fund somewhere between $10-$15 billion, but since the problem runs into the hundreds of trillions, I have a feeling the fund, as proposed, won't cut it.

Ok, we now have talks of two Federal bailouts that will cost the US taxpayer trillions of dollars. And I'm supposed to sell gold because commodities are down, or worldwide economic growth is slowing? Please.

For once, I would like to see the trifecta: gold, the gold stocks, and the stock market rally all at once. Is that too much to ask? When was the last time that happened?

4 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hope you got that big bet down cause baby that trifect is commin in today and paying big!

10:26 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

At the finish line its'Au Xau and Dow a trifecta, hope youre' going home with a bulging wallet. A quinella tomorrow?

4:29 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

i see you have ben banned from KITCO join the club ill bet it was cajus who banned you he/she is such a douche bag!!! why you get banned?

7:14 PM  
Blogger Neal said...

Got banned because I kept listing the "traderneal has updated his blog" posts.


How did you know I got banned? Is their a list or something.

And yes, the moderators take their positions way too seriously.

8:38 PM  

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