Another Wild Day in the Gold market............
WOW! What a day. First it's up a bunch, then it's down a bunch and finally it closes up slightly. Like my friend's father who died while having sex, gold didn't know if it was coming or going.
After hitting $894 in the overnight session during China's first day of gold futures trading (boy, were they excited) gold sold off coming into Europe and received the final smackdown when, what else, the Crimex opened.
I would like to personally thank the a'hole who was driving 15mph under the speed limit, for the whole 10 miles while I was behind him! As I was driving, it was quite frustrating to hear the 10 minute update on Bloomberg as gold was first up $6, then up $5 then up $4 and so on. When I finally got to work and fired up my computer up, imagine how great I felt to see gold tick red. I wonder how much money that grandparent cost me as I prolly could have gotten out of my gold stocks higher than I did.
In all, I have been very impressed how gold well has acted over the last couple of days in face of weak oil and a much stronger dollar. This is not your father's gold.
And for those of you wondering, Guy Adami still hates gold and thinks NEM should not be held by anyone other than a mutual fund with assets over $10 Billion. Gotta watch those high PE stocks. But I guess stocks like AAPL (50 PE) are fine; no matter that the consumer is slowing.
Also, Denis Gartman has come out and said that he has sold half his gold. Now, I really don't follow Gartman that closely to comment on his actions in specific. But, I have heard more than my fair share of guru's call the top and sell. I heard it at $450, $500, $600, and $700. When gold hit $800, Guy Adami swore it was going back to $700.
Is gold going to correct, you betcha. When? I have no idea. The last correction from $840 to $800 was pretty quick and shallow, especially for gold. I think it lasted, what, two weeks?
My point is, you don't know when the next leg is going to kick in. You don't want to be left without any exposure when that happens. As a trader, who gets his P+L marked on a daily basis, I have to weigh my risk exposure every night before I go home. That means making a call as to where I think gold might be going the next day. I will freely admit, since New Years, I have not gone home with a full rack of gold stocks as I felt the hammer could fall at anytime. I have been playing catch up and having to pay up in the morning. (Compare that to September, when gold was deeply oversold and I went home almost everynight with a full compliment of stocks.) In general though, the average person has to decide for himself what he or she feels comfortable with. FWIW, in my retirement accounts I always carry a full slate of gold funds and gold stocks.
So, what now. Gold is currently up $2.50. However, I am finding that the overnight session really doesn't matter that much anymore, as gold has been doing the opposite during the NY session.
I am sure whatever happens in the next few days will be wild and woolly.
After hitting $894 in the overnight session during China's first day of gold futures trading (boy, were they excited) gold sold off coming into Europe and received the final smackdown when, what else, the Crimex opened.
I would like to personally thank the a'hole who was driving 15mph under the speed limit, for the whole 10 miles while I was behind him! As I was driving, it was quite frustrating to hear the 10 minute update on Bloomberg as gold was first up $6, then up $5 then up $4 and so on. When I finally got to work and fired up my computer up, imagine how great I felt to see gold tick red. I wonder how much money that grandparent cost me as I prolly could have gotten out of my gold stocks higher than I did.
In all, I have been very impressed how gold well has acted over the last couple of days in face of weak oil and a much stronger dollar. This is not your father's gold.
And for those of you wondering, Guy Adami still hates gold and thinks NEM should not be held by anyone other than a mutual fund with assets over $10 Billion. Gotta watch those high PE stocks. But I guess stocks like AAPL (50 PE) are fine; no matter that the consumer is slowing.
Also, Denis Gartman has come out and said that he has sold half his gold. Now, I really don't follow Gartman that closely to comment on his actions in specific. But, I have heard more than my fair share of guru's call the top and sell. I heard it at $450, $500, $600, and $700. When gold hit $800, Guy Adami swore it was going back to $700.
Is gold going to correct, you betcha. When? I have no idea. The last correction from $840 to $800 was pretty quick and shallow, especially for gold. I think it lasted, what, two weeks?
My point is, you don't know when the next leg is going to kick in. You don't want to be left without any exposure when that happens. As a trader, who gets his P+L marked on a daily basis, I have to weigh my risk exposure every night before I go home. That means making a call as to where I think gold might be going the next day. I will freely admit, since New Years, I have not gone home with a full rack of gold stocks as I felt the hammer could fall at anytime. I have been playing catch up and having to pay up in the morning. (Compare that to September, when gold was deeply oversold and I went home almost everynight with a full compliment of stocks.) In general though, the average person has to decide for himself what he or she feels comfortable with. FWIW, in my retirement accounts I always carry a full slate of gold funds and gold stocks.
So, what now. Gold is currently up $2.50. However, I am finding that the overnight session really doesn't matter that much anymore, as gold has been doing the opposite during the NY session.
I am sure whatever happens in the next few days will be wild and woolly.


1 Comments:
Hey Neal!
I've been lurking on your blog here for the past several days...very nice job.
I'm in agreement with most of what you've been saying. In fact, I was commenting as well in Kitco that I think the gold price is holding up quite well considering the rising dollar and inevitable profit-taking that happens as we scale new heights.
...Speaking of profit-taking, I don't understand all the hullabaloo about Gartman selling half his gold position. Since when is it a bad thing to occasionally take profits? 50% sold means he's still 50% in, right?
Oh and btw....just thank your lucky stars that person you were driving behind this morning didn't have their left turn signal on for the entire 10 miles as well.....
(what can I say, I'm a cup-half full kinda gal...)
-Sparkie
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